"The days when low interest rates could encourage visions of a peaceful world based on renewable energy, equality, and autonomous central banks are long gone. World economies will enter a state of "War Economy" in 2023, where national economic interests and independence take precedence over globalization." That is how vehement Saxo Bank is in its report on the black swans for the upcoming year, which was just released.
Black swans are occurrences that, on the surface, could not have been predicted, have a significant socioeconomic influence, and, after they have occurred, are examined in retrospect to become events that might have been expected.
These are the Danish bank's ten "crazy" predictions:
1. A trillion-dollar energy plan known as the "Manhattan Project" is developed by a multibillion-dollar consortium.
The ever-increasing demand for energy prompts the world's wealthiest people to get together and start an R&D project of a scale that hasn't been seen since the Manhattan Project, which gave the United States its first atomic bomb.
2. Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, resigns
President Macron is forced to resign from office due to the political gridlock in France and the emergence of Marine Le Pen following the 2022 election.
3. After central banks fail to manage inflation, gold rises to $3,000
Gold jumps, reaching a price of $3,000 as markets and central banks understand that the notion that inflation is temporary is false and that prices will remain high for longer.
4. The EU develops its own military forces.
The European Union decides to establish its own armed forces in order to defend itself against different geopolitical hazards, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, as a result of ongoing issues in the region and a U.S. military that is not performing its historic position as the world's protector.
5. One nation consents to outlaw the production of all beef by 2030.
One nation decides to not only charge a high price on meat but also outlaw domestic production in an endeavor to become one of the world leaders on the path to net-zero emissions.
6. The UK has a referendum opposing Brexit.
The United Kingdom is experiencing political unrest following a recession and intense domestic pressure, which will culminate in a referendum to reverse Brexit.
7. Extensive pricing controls to restrain governmental inflation
Rationing and price controls are associated with wartime economy, according to history. The implementation of severe pricing controls by the authorities has a number of unforeseen repercussions, and this time is no different.
8. OPEC+ and "Chindia" decide to deal in new reserve assets and depart the IMF
The impact of sanctions on Russia has been felt globally due to fluctuations in the value of the US dollar in nations that do not view the US as an ally. They exit the IMF and establish a new reserve asset to liberate themselves from this.
9. While Japan overhauls its banking system, the USD/JPY exchange rate is set at $200.
The Bank of Japan seeks to stop the Japanese yen from falling after the difficulties the currency had in 2022. Japan will start a complete financial system reset if it doesn't have long-term success. As public outrage over increasing inflation reaches a fever pitch, USD/JPY increases to $160 and $170. The government and the central bank intervene and set a cap at $200 as soon as the USD/JPY rises above $180.
10. Ban on tax havens destroys private capital
The war economy brings with it a sharper focus on national interests and the self-aggrandizing power of sovereign nations. In that sense, the OECD countries focus on tax havens and use all of their might to outright outlaw them.
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