The extreme right is expected to prevail in Italy's upcoming election, which would be the biggest political shift in Rome in decades.

On Sunday, Italians will cast their ballots in a snap general election that is anticipated to produce a government led by a far-right party. For a country that already faces ongoing economic and political uncertainty, this would be a tremendous political upheaval.

Polls conducted before September 9 (the start of a blackout period) suggested that a right-wing alliance would win the majority of seats in the lower and upper chambers of parliament.

The far-right Fratelli d'Italia party of Giorgia Meloni serves as the alliance's chair (Brothers of Italy). The coalition also comprises Noi Moderati, a tiny right-leaning party, and Matteo Salvini's Lega and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia.

One party that stands out and is predicted to earn the highest percentage of votes is Brothers of Italy. It has been receiving nearly 25% of the vote, according to poll aggregator Politiche 2022, outperforming Lega, its closest right-wing ally, which is expected to receive about 12% of the vote.

Enrico Letta's Democratic Party, which is considered to be center-left, is predicted to receive about 21% of the vote. The Green and Left Alliance, More Europe, and Civic Commitment, its coalition partners, are predicted to receive single-digit shares.

Mario Draghi, the prime minister, resigned in July after failing to rally a disjointed political coalition behind his economic objectives. The outcome is the hasty election.

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If her party wins the election, Giorgia Meloni, the head of Fratelli d'Italia, might become Italy's first female prime minister. She would also be the country's first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini rose to power a century ago.

Carlo Ciccioli, president of Fratelli d'Italia in the eastern Italian province of Le Marche, told CNBC that the party was now poised to rule because of its extreme popularity, which has "extended to the rest of Italy."

We currently appear to be the largest party in the nation, but this won't be confirmed until Sunday's election and not by any polls. Why do I think Fratelli d'Italia will be successful? because we have strong leadership. According to Jouma Bercetche, Giorgia Meloni is politically and culturally astute.

Although it was established in 2012, Fratelli d'Italia has its roots in the Italian neo-fascist movement of the 20th century, which emerged after the assassination of fascist leader Mussolini in 1945.

A division of Berlusconi's People of Freedom (or PdL) party, which included Giorgia Meloni, created Fratelli d'Italia. Its name is drawn from the first verses of the national anthem of Italy.

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Since then, the party's support has grown and overtaken that of the nationalist Lega. People who are concerned about immigration (Italy being the final destination of many migrant boats that cross the Mediterranean), Italy's relationship with the EU, and the economy have responded favorably to it.

According to analysts, the party's popularity was boosted by its choice to abstain from Draghi's most recent broad-based alliance.

According to a recent remark by Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of a risk consultancy, this distinguished Meloni "as an outsider within the political system and as the lone opposition person."

Origins and methods

Given its views, which echo the nationalist, nativist, and anti-immigration stance of Italy's fascist era, Fratelli d'Italia has frequently been called "neo-fascist" or "post-fascist."

Meloni, on the other hand, asserts that she rid the party of all fascists. In the summer, she said that the right-wing in Italy had "relegated fascism to the trash of history for decades."

Since the party rejects homosexual marriage and advocates traditional "family values," its beliefs are, to put it mildly, socially conservative; Meloni said in 2019 that her mission is to uphold "God, country, and family."

Fratelli d'Italia has changed its stance on the euro in Europe, but still opposes the currency and supports EU reform to make the EU less bureaucratic and less significant in national politics. Its strategy is summed up in one of its slogans, "A Europe that does less, but does it better."

On the economic front, it has agreed with the position taken by the center-right coalition that the incoming administration should lower sales taxes on a few items to help with the cost of living crisis and that Italy should renegotiate its Covid recovery funds with the EU.

Contrary to the Lega, which has been ambivalent about these measures, Fratelli d'Italia has supported sanctions against Russia and has been pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine.

The party has supported the dictatorial leader after a European Parliament judgment determined that Hungary could no longer be deemed a democracy, but it has also maintained good relations with one of the EU's most prominent foes, Hungary's President Viktor Orban.

Left-leaning politicians are worried that a Meloni-led administration could change relations with the rest of Europe. Democratic Party chief Enrico Letta said to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick that Italy has two options in Europe: staying at the top of the economic and political rankings, or being "relegated."

Our first choice is to keep ourselves in the "first division." The major European countries and fellow founders with us, Germany, France, and Spain, are included in the first section, along with Brussels.

At the Ambrosetti economic event in early September, he said, "The second possibility is to be downgraded to the second division alongside Poland and Hungary, staying with them against Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Madrid."

He said, "I think Italy choosing the second division would be devastating."

Many experts have referred to Meloni as a political chameleon due to her changing political stances over time.

In a September note, Teneo's Wolfango Piccoli posed the question of which Meloni would lead the government: the one who praised Hungary's Viktor Orban or the one who backed Mario Draghi's anti-Russian stance.

"Which leader was more consoling—the sovereigntist who supported Italy's exit from the euro or the pacifying one who maintained a more conventional position toward Europe during the election campaign?

Which conservative leader was more responsible—the populist who called for a naval blockade in the Mediterranean to stop the influx of unauthorized immigrants, or the proponent of a European solution?," he said.

A certain amount of instability and volatility are expected following the election in Italy (a nation that is notorious for having had 69 administrations since World War II), not least because differences within the right-wing alliance's FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia are likely to surface.

By highlighting policy differences such as fiscal austerity, pensions, and Russia sanctions, Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi will be attacking coalition colleagues and attempting to regain prominence after a (potential) electoral setback.

Politico-personal rivalries will emerge soon after the election, causing chaos and reducing the effectiveness of the new administration, according to Piccoli.